‘Truth be told’, we are now nearer 2050 than the millennium. ‘I’m not going to lie’, some 19.3m tuned into that bell weather of British society, the Gavin & Stacey Christmas Special. ‘I’ll tell you for why’, you can’t beat a happy ending.
What did the Prime Minister get for Christmas?
An X-rated headache coupled with a reality check, National Insurance up, economy down. Whilst the Government has pledged an extra £63 billion since the election, US based economic correspondent Elon Musk states ‘very few companies will be willing to invest in the UK with the current administration’. Despite this, the UK was the third most targeted country for foreign merger activity, topping some £124bn in 2024.
With approval ratings plummeting, can the Prime Minister reform his fortunes ahead of May’s local elections given he’s flagging behind both Conservatives and the Reform party. Perhaps the PM can borrow a line from Nessa, ‘I won’t lie to you, I’ve been better’ as he is fast working out that it is easier to work out what people want rather than deliver it.
With zero growth on the table, the Chancellor declined to rule out more tax rises to plug the black hole as reportedly two-thirds of her borrowing buffer has been wiped out. Ms Reeves is committed to getting growth in the economy that delivers for working people, but the transmission to payslips may not be immediate. Reeves believes her budget got the balance right, her Christmas list included patience and resolve, economic growth will follow.
No one denies fixing the economic plumbing is a huge challenge, can 20 million imperial tons of concrete, 6 billion bricks and another Milton Keynes sort it?
The most beautiful word in the dictionary
In the ‘make America great, again’ narrative, Mr Trump’s word of the day is ‘Tariff’. But bullish markets favour a Trumponomics boom based on tariffs being applied with a small ‘t’ rather than a capital, and that hardy perennial, artificial intelligence creating a productivity boom. With the UK largely exporting services stateside, Mr Trump may be inclined to treat us more favourably when it comes to trade agreements.
Reasons to be cheerful
First-time buyers returned to the mortgage market with a 14% increase in 2024. Interest remains strong even if materially lower mortgage rates don’t appear in 2025. Waitrose remains a magnet for house prices, followed by a great pub, an artesian baker and cappuccino maker. The average UK house has hit a new £298,000 high.
A record 22 million are said to have joined in a £3.7 billion Boxing Day splurge, spending £236 each. This is on the back of news that 63% of us spent less this year in the build-up to Christmas. When it comes to gifts, cash is king; second-best Christmas present is a receipt.
We’ve not held back on ‘Hollyidays’, bookings are up 12% with summer holidays accounting for 55% of those booked, Benidorm remains a favourite. In fact, despite economic headwinds, the desire to travel has thrived. It’s forecast that 60% of Britons will have booked summer stays by the end of February with 45% having already ring-fenced their spending money.
Taxing Turkey
Some 4,409 people completed their tax return on Christmas day, slightly less than 2023. If you are filing, then check your Vinted and eBay activity. Since January 2024, HMRC has required your friendly online platform to provide data on sellers who hustle more than £1,700 a year in a bid to raise a jumper tax. If you still need to ring HMRC, then it’s a 22-minute wait. Be warned, HMRC has made £916 million interest on late tax payments since the pandemic, you could be charged 8.75%, don’t delay!
How was my Christmas? – Tidy!
Simon Cossey is Dafferns’ Business Development Consultant and part of our Strategic Advisory team.
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