Amongst ‘Dealism’ making a debut on the world stage, Paddington Bear is set to stand up to US film tariffs and reminds Trump ‘if we’re kind and polite, the world will be right’.
Labour isn’t working
Not a reference to the 1978 Saatchi & Saatchi Conservative advertising campaign but Mr Blair’s opinion of Labour’s current net zero approach. Whilst the Tony Blair Institute supports the Governments 2050 net zero targets, is clean energy by 2030 ‘doomed to fail’ – they feel a major rethink on how we decarbonise our economy is required. The consumer (voter) has spoken as they potentially become less inclined to make changes in lifestyles, there is a real need to tread lightly on people’s lives to secure the climate change actions needed.
In an altogether different backdrop, keeping the Scunthorpe steel fires burning has the making of a film script to rival ‘Brassed Off’ which documented the 1980s demise of Grimethorpe Colliery. The demise of coal and subsequent reliance on gas has driven the high price of UK electricity, more than doubling in 5 years, 50pc more than some European neighbours and 4 times that of the United States of Trump. This has plagued our industrial infrastructure, infrastructure that is critical to keep the steel windmills standing to boost green energy supply.
In tough times, good policy becomes even more important. It is worth remembering that our prosperity and stability will largely be guided by decisions made in this country. Slow UK productivity growth is a constant throughout continual world turmoil, not helped by a strike mentality (rumoured junior doctors) albeit average public sector pay per week is £21 higher than private counterparts (February 2025).
White House for Sale – Never say Never
Could Rightmove be listing an 1800’s neoclassical residency with 132 rooms and 35 bathrooms, Mr Trump says ‘never say never’, whilst ex-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney now Canadian premier has been clear that the second largest real estate in the world will never be for sale.
Whilst ‘The White House’ might be priceless, the average UK home is now priced less (month on month), posting the steepest contraction in 20 months on the back of stamp duty thresholds reverting to 2022 levels from 1 April. It is hoped that more base rate cuts this year will motivate mortgage holders to move. UK Plc has the largest mortgage of all, last month saw it sell short-dated bonds rather than issue long term debt to chase lower rates, as the Chancellor looks to preserve every penny.
Big actions prompt big reactions, but 100 days on Trump has slumped to the lowest approval rating of any President in seven decades, particularly around his handling of the economy. As we fast approach Mr Starmer’s first 365 days, Labour’s by-election showing slumped. Perhaps policy reform is in order albeit the Government is looking for more time to make good on its election promises, but voters have short attention spans.
‘Gold must be sold to the Treasury’
As we commemorate VE day, this was a headline from September 1939, luxury imports including motor cars were also banned. Eighty years on, 4 in 10 young Britons believe investing in gold is the key to future riches (a third favour cryptocurrency).
Moreover, millions of young people have no pension plan, yet are planning to retire and travel the world well before their parent’s retirement age. Those taking pension precautions will see more UK investment as Ms Reeves looks for the pension providers to honour proposed voluntary commitments to invest more in UK assets.
Part of planning is confidence in economic data and the Office for National Statistics has been tasked with restoring faith in lies, damn lies and statistics. The Great British consumer feeds on confidence, it personifies our willingness to spend. Nobody wants a debt fuelled unsustainable consumer boom, but with a 4.6 point fall in Mrs Cossey’s April confidence levels this puts us back at December 2022 levels.
It is said that 46% of households were forced to make at least one financial adjustment in the past month. Mrs Cossey will be enjoying an M&S Best Ever meal choice tonight whilst I’ll be checking out the reduced aisle!
Simon Cossey is Dafferns’ Business Development Consultant and part of our Strategic Advisory team.
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