Keep Calm and Carry On (But Make Sure You Have a Plan B)

In recent weeks, the global economy has been rocked by the turbulence and uncertainty stemming from America’s on/off tariff policy.

President Trump’s imposition of trade tariffs has led to retaliatory measures from targeted countries, creating a ripple effect that has impacted markets worldwide.  

As businesses and investors struggle with the fallout, there’s a classic piece of British advice I would give – “keep calm and carry on”.  Or in the words of Corporal Jones from the BBC sitcom Dad’s Army, “Don’t panic, don’t panic”.

Of course, the economic effects of President Trump’s tariffs are far-reaching, with many economists predicting the US itself will potentially be the hardest hit.  Perhaps no-one in the world will be unaffected, but what we all have to focus on is managing what we can control, whilst at the same time fully considering the risks and trying to mitigate against those risks. We need to be developing a realistic Plan B.

Whilst it’s tempting to adopt the attitude of Private Frazer – “We’re doomed, we’re all doomed!” – just as the reality never turned out to be as bad as his prophecies, such is the reality of our current predicament too.  Those that pivot and adapt will be well placed to take advantage of the opportunities that will no doubt arise from the changing global economic landscape.

Businesses should consider diversifying their supply chains, exploring new markets, and investing in innovation to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Investors should reassess their portfolios, focusing on risk management and seeking opportunities in sectors less affected by trade disruptions.

Some economic journalists are suggesting that countries should forget about America and focus on increasing trade flows among themselves to limit the damage.  Trump’s economic delusions are already hurting America, with tourists choosing to go elsewhere, consumers boycotting American products, and financial markets tanking, wiping billions off investors’ wealth.  As Corporal Jones was fond of saying, “They don’t like it up ‘em”.

Whilst I can’t deny that it would be very satisfying to see President Trump’s erratic protectionism coming home to roost to make America poor again, I don’t wish that on anyone, and that would not be good for global stability, so I’m hoping for a resolution where we can all win.

If only Mr Trump had some advisers around him to offer the sage words often uttered by Sergeant Wilson to Captain Mainwaring – “Do you think that’s wise, sir?”.

In conclusion, whilst it’s important to keep calm and carry on in the face of economic turbulence, having a Plan B is equally crucial. By staying informed, adaptable, and proactive, businesses and individuals can navigate the uncertainty and emerge stronger.