BREXIT – Waiting for Geoffrey Cox?

Monday 11 March 2019. Who knows where this week is heading in the world of BREXIT.

This week, in theory the  following could happen…..

  • Either today or tomorrow (Tuesday) Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General (not Geoffrey Cox), will deliver revised legal advice on his interpretation of the Irish Border Backstop.
  • The UK Parliament will have its second meaningful vote on the May deal and pass it, having rejected it by 230 votes in December
  • and we will then leave the EU on or around 29 March as planned…..

The problem is, Mr Cox’s negotiations with the EU didn’t go to plan last week….

partly because the EU twigged that the UK Parliament didn’t have the strength of will to take the “No Deal Exit” threat right to the edge of the cliff. Once they realised it was an empty threat, the UK lost its negotiating position and they apparently lost interest in bending.

With both the Conservatives and Labour split down the middle the UK Parliament does not seem to have a majority opinion for anything. If the meaningful vote goes against Mrs May, there will follow other votes to try to take No Deal away as an option and to try to defer the 29 March deadline.

If that happens, I don’t think Mrs May will survive the week……

Tony Blair says to avoid BREXIT altogether and for the UK to remain in the EU, three things have to happen; vote down the May deal, defer the 29 March deadline and hold a second referendum.

Two of these three things may well happen this week and a second referendum, or a General Election may not be far off.

As Harold Wilson once said; “a week is a long time in politics”. It’s going to be a big week…..

Martin Gibbs is Dafferns Managing Partner. He likes talking about BREXIT and any political views in this post are his own.